# AI may have lowered employment for college graduates in exposed majors, study says

Digest AI · Research · published 2026-09-21T17:00:00Z

Canonical: https://digestai.news/story/ai-may-have-lowered-employment-for-college-graduates-in-exposed-majors

## Summary

A new study of Texas public‑university students and graduates finds that after the 2022 release of ChatGPT, recent graduates from majors whose occupations are more exposed to generative AI saw a 1.7‑percentage‑point relative decline in the probability of finding a job in Texas within a year, compared with less‑exposed majors.  Among those who did find work, first‑year wages were about 5 % lower than the earnings changes for graduates from less‑exposed fields.

The researchers built an exposure metric using Anthropic’s Claude task‑mapping and Lightcast job‑posting data, then linked it to administrative records from the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board and the Texas Workforce Commission.  The same exposure also made four‑year graduates 1.4 percentage points more likely to enroll in graduate school within a year, though most stayed in the same discipline.  Undergraduate enrollment in highly exposed majors fell 4.8 % between fall 2024 and fall 2025.  The authors caution that the findings indicate a correlation, not a definitive causal claim, and note that the long‑term returns to further education in AI‑exposed fields remain uncertain.

## Key points

- Recent grads from AI‑exposed majors saw a 1.7‑point relative drop in Texas employment within a year after ChatGPT’s release.
- First‑year earnings for those graduates fell about 5 % relative to less‑exposed majors.
- Graduate enrollment rose 1.4 points for exposed majors, while undergraduate enrollment in those fields fell 4.8 % from fall 2024 to fall 2025.

## Why it matters

The analysis links generative AI adoption to measurable setbacks for new workers, signaling educators and policymakers to prioritize AI‑complementary skill development.

## Sources

1. [AI plays a role in weak labor market for college graduates](https://dallasfed.org/research/economics/2026/0922) (dallasfed.org, 2026-09-21)

## Cite

Digest AI, "AI may have lowered employment for college graduates in exposed majors, study says", 21 September 2026, https://digestai.news/story/ai-may-have-lowered-employment-for-college-graduates-in-exposed-majors

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