{"version":1,"type":"story","url":"https://digestai.news/story/ai-snake-oil-reposts-2024-critique-of-existential-risk-probabilities","json":"https://digestai.news/story/ai-snake-oil-reposts-2024-critique-of-existential-risk-probabilities.json","markdown":"https://digestai.news/story/ai-snake-oil-reposts-2024-critique-of-existential-risk-probabilities.md","slug":"ai-snake-oil-reposts-2024-critique-of-existential-risk-probabilities","headline":"AI Snake Oil reposts 2024 critique of existential risk probabilities","summary":"**AI Snake Oil** reposted an essay from 2024 arguing that probabilities of AI existential risk are unreliable for policy. The authors claim these estimates lack rigorous grounding, relying instead on vague intuitions and speculative guesses. They distinguish between general forecasting—where quantification can be useful—and AI x-risk, where no reference class, deductive model, or historical precedent exists to justify numbers like a 12% high-end estimate from the 2022 **Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT)** by the **Forecasting Research Institute’s Longitudinal Expert AI Panel**. The authors also highlight selection bias in forecasters, who often share concerns about AI’s potential, and note that even","keyPoints":["Authors argue AI x-risk probabilities are unreliable for policy due to lack of reference classes or deductive models","2022 XPT median AI extinction risk estimate by AI experts was 3%, with a 75th percentile of 12%","Forecasters’ subjective estimates vary widely, with no way to validate accuracy for unique events like AI doom"],"whyItMatters":"If policymakers rely on these probabilities, they may overprioritize speculative risks without evidence, risking misallocation of resources or unnecessary restrictions on AI development.","category":{"slug":"policy","name":"Policy & Regulation","url":"https://digestai.news/category/policy"},"entities":{"companies":[],"models":[],"people":[]},"firstPublishedAt":"2026-09-28T11:13:47Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-28T11:13:47Z","sourceCount":1,"hasPrimarySource":false,"sources":[{"outlet":"AI Snake Oil","title":"AI existential risk probabilities are (still) too unreliable to inform policy","url":"https://normaltech.ai/p/p-doom","publishedAt":"2026-09-28T11:13:47Z","type":"newsletter","primary":false,"lead":true}],"sourceNotes":null,"discussions":[],"thread":null,"cite":{"text":"Digest AI, \"AI Snake Oil reposts 2024 critique of existential risk probabilities\", 28 September 2026, https://digestai.news/story/ai-snake-oil-reposts-2024-critique-of-existential-risk-probabilities","publisher":"Digest AI","title":"AI Snake Oil reposts 2024 critique of existential risk probabilities","datePublished":"2026-09-28T11:13:47Z","url":"https://digestai.news/story/ai-snake-oil-reposts-2024-critique-of-existential-risk-probabilities"},"generatedBy":"Written by Digest AI's editorial model from the linked sources; the sources are the record.","license":"Headlines, digests and key points are written by Digest AI and may be quoted with a link to the story page. Linked articles belong to their publishers. Terms: https://digestai.news/terms#reuse"}