# AI Snake Oil reposts 2024 critique of existential risk probabilities

Digest AI · Policy & Regulation · published 2026-09-28T11:13:47Z

Canonical: https://digestai.news/story/ai-snake-oil-reposts-2024-critique-of-existential-risk-probabilities

## Summary

**AI Snake Oil** reposted an essay from 2024 arguing that probabilities of AI existential risk are unreliable for policy. The authors claim these estimates lack rigorous grounding, relying instead on vague intuitions and speculative guesses. They distinguish between general forecasting—where quantification can be useful—and AI x-risk, where no reference class, deductive model, or historical precedent exists to justify numbers like a 12% high-end estimate from the 2022 **Existential Risk Persuasion Tournament (XPT)** by the **Forecasting Research Institute’s Longitudinal Expert AI Panel**. The authors also highlight selection bias in forecasters, who often share concerns about AI’s potential, and note that even

## Key points

- Authors argue AI x-risk probabilities are unreliable for policy due to lack of reference classes or deductive models
- 2022 XPT median AI extinction risk estimate by AI experts was 3%, with a 75th percentile of 12%
- Forecasters’ subjective estimates vary widely, with no way to validate accuracy for unique events like AI doom

## Why it matters

If policymakers rely on these probabilities, they may overprioritize speculative risks without evidence, risking misallocation of resources or unnecessary restrictions on AI development.

## Sources

1. [AI existential risk probabilities are (still) too unreliable to inform policy](https://normaltech.ai/p/p-doom) (AI Snake Oil, 2026-09-28)

## Cite

Digest AI, "AI Snake Oil reposts 2024 critique of existential risk probabilities", 28 September 2026, https://digestai.news/story/ai-snake-oil-reposts-2024-critique-of-existential-risk-probabilities

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