# Baibaichuchu at the NTCIR-19 FinArg-3 Task: When Is Maximum Possible Profit Predictable from Investor Text?

Digest AI · Research · published 2026-10-06T04:00:00Z

Canonical: https://digestai.news/story/baibaichuchu-at-the-ntcir-19-finarg-3-task-when-is-maximum-possible-pr

## Summary

The BAIBAICHUCHU team participated in the NTCIR-19 FinArg-3 Social Media Subtask, ranking Chinese investor posts by Maximum Possible Profit (MPP). Their ensemble model—combining lexical features, a MacBERT ranker fine-tuned on FinArg-2, and an LLM judge—achieved a development evaluation score of 0.734 but settled on an official run scoring 0.517. All submitted runs ranged between 0.4598 and 0.5402, with 26 unanimous three-track pairs scoring 0.500.

A post-hoc audit revealed the judge applied a long-only rule to bearish posts, despite MPP being stance-aware. Adjusting this rule altered 28 of 87 predictions without changing accuracy but reduced development accuracy from 0.680 to 0.622. The team also analyzed ranking factors—directional text, volatility, horizon, and pairwise margin—and found a running-extremum model predicted $\sigma\sqrt{T}$ scaling. Pre-posting volatility correlated with later MPP outcomes (Spearman $\rho=0.320$), while transferred text showed near-zero correlation with July 2026 outcomes.

## Key points

- BAIBAICHUCHU’s ensemble model scored 0.517 on NTCIR-19 FinArg-3’s official task, with development scores up to 0.734
- Post-hoc audit found a long-only rule bias in bearish posts, lowering development accuracy to 0.622 after correction
- Pre-posting volatility correlated with MPP outcomes (Spearman ρ=0.320), while transferred text showed minimal predictive value

## Why it matters

The study advances financial text analysis by demonstrating how regime-specific shortcuts and volatility signals influence MPP predictions, offering insights for high-frequency trading and investor sentiment modeling.

## Sources

1. [BAIBAICHUCHU at the NTCIR-19 FinArg-3 Task: When Is Maximum Possible Profit Predictable from Investor Text?](https://arxiv.org/abs/2610.03962) (arXiv cs.CL, 2026-10-06, primary source)

## Cite

Digest AI, "Baibaichuchu at the NTCIR-19 FinArg-3 Task: When Is Maximum Possible Profit Predictable from Investor Text?", 6 October 2026, https://digestai.news/story/baibaichuchu-at-the-ntcir-19-finarg-3-task-when-is-maximum-possible-pr

---

Written by Digest AI's editorial model from the linked sources; the sources are the record. Headlines, digests and key points are written by Digest AI and may be quoted with a link to the story page. Linked articles belong to their publishers. Terms: https://digestai.news/terms#reuse
JSON: https://digestai.news/story/baibaichuchu-at-the-ntcir-19-finarg-3-task-when-is-maximum-possible-pr.json