{"version":1,"type":"story","url":"https://digestai.news/story/chatgpt-claude-and-gemini-give-varied-extinction-risk-estimates","json":"https://digestai.news/story/chatgpt-claude-and-gemini-give-varied-extinction-risk-estimates.json","markdown":"https://digestai.news/story/chatgpt-claude-and-gemini-give-varied-extinction-risk-estimates.md","slug":"chatgpt-claude-and-gemini-give-varied-extinction-risk-estimates","headline":"ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini give varied extinction risk estimates","summary":"The author asked three leading chatbots – OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Anthropic’s Claude, and Google’s Gemini – to estimate the probability that AI could wipe out humanity by the end of the decade. ChatGPT replied with a 5‑10 % range, stressing that the figure applies only to actual human extinction and not to broader crises. Claude declined to give a precise number, calling the risk “real and non‑negligible” while highlighting other harms such as power concentration and misuse. Gemini cited a consolidated view of expert opinions, placing the catastrophic scenario between 10 % and 20 %.\n\nThe piece notes that the models base their answers on training data and existing research rather than independent judgment, and it frames the discussion amid ongoing debate about whether AI‑related warnings are genuine concerns or PR. A disclaimer reminds readers that the percentages are rough estimates, not factual certainties, and that the underlying data were not independently verified.\n\nThe author concludes that even a modest chance of extinction is too high, underscoring the growing perception of AI safety as a real threat today.","keyPoints":["ChatGPT estimates a 5‑10 % chance of AI‑driven human extinction within the decade","Claude calls the risk real but gives no specific probability, noting other severe harms","Gemini reports a consolidated expert view of 10‑20 % for a catastrophic scenario"],"whyItMatters":"Understanding how leading AI systems assess existential risk highlights the seriousness of safety debates and can shape public and policy pressure for stronger safeguards.","category":{"slug":"society","name":"Society & Work","url":"https://digestai.news/category/society"},"entities":{"companies":["OpenAI","Anthropic","Google"],"models":["ChatGPT","Claude","Gemini"],"people":[]},"firstPublishedAt":"2026-09-25T12:50:00Z","updatedAt":"2026-09-25T12:50:00Z","sourceCount":1,"hasPrimarySource":false,"sources":[{"outlet":"notebookcheck.net","title":"AI asked: What are the odds that AI will wipe out humanity this decade?","url":"https://notebookcheck.net/AI-asked-What-are-the-odds-that-AI-will-wipe-out-humanity-this-decade.1408390.0.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-25T12:50:00Z","type":"press","primary":false,"lead":true}],"sourceNotes":null,"discussions":[],"thread":null,"cite":{"text":"Digest AI, \"ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini give varied extinction risk estimates\", 25 September 2026, https://digestai.news/story/chatgpt-claude-and-gemini-give-varied-extinction-risk-estimates","publisher":"Digest AI","title":"ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini give varied extinction risk estimates","datePublished":"2026-09-25T12:50:00Z","url":"https://digestai.news/story/chatgpt-claude-and-gemini-give-varied-extinction-risk-estimates"},"generatedBy":"Written by Digest AI's editorial model from the linked sources; the sources are the record.","license":"Headlines, digests and key points are written by Digest AI and may be quoted with a link to the story page. Linked articles belong to their publishers. Terms: https://digestai.news/terms#reuse"}