# ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini give varied extinction risk estimates

Digest AI · Society & Work · published 2026-09-25T12:50:00Z

Canonical: https://digestai.news/story/chatgpt-claude-and-gemini-give-varied-extinction-risk-estimates

## Summary

The author asked three leading chatbots – OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Anthropic’s Claude, and Google’s Gemini – to estimate the probability that AI could wipe out humanity by the end of the decade. ChatGPT replied with a 5‑10 % range, stressing that the figure applies only to actual human extinction and not to broader crises. Claude declined to give a precise number, calling the risk “real and non‑negligible” while highlighting other harms such as power concentration and misuse. Gemini cited a consolidated view of expert opinions, placing the catastrophic scenario between 10 % and 20 %.

The piece notes that the models base their answers on training data and existing research rather than independent judgment, and it frames the discussion amid ongoing debate about whether AI‑related warnings are genuine concerns or PR. A disclaimer reminds readers that the percentages are rough estimates, not factual certainties, and that the underlying data were not independently verified.

The author concludes that even a modest chance of extinction is too high, underscoring the growing perception of AI safety as a real threat today.

## Key points

- ChatGPT estimates a 5‑10 % chance of AI‑driven human extinction within the decade
- Claude calls the risk real but gives no specific probability, noting other severe harms
- Gemini reports a consolidated expert view of 10‑20 % for a catastrophic scenario

## Why it matters

Understanding how leading AI systems assess existential risk highlights the seriousness of safety debates and can shape public and policy pressure for stronger safeguards.

## Sources

1. [AI asked: What are the odds that AI will wipe out humanity this decade?](https://notebookcheck.net/AI-asked-What-are-the-odds-that-AI-will-wipe-out-humanity-this-decade.1408390.0.html) (notebookcheck.net, 2026-09-25)

## Cite

Digest AI, "ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini give varied extinction risk estimates", 25 September 2026, https://digestai.news/story/chatgpt-claude-and-gemini-give-varied-extinction-risk-estimates

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