# Duane Forrester forecasts SERP default shift between 2028 and 2030

Digest AI · Marketing & Small Business · published 2026-10-15T14:00:33Z

Canonical: https://digestai.news/story/duane-forrester-forecasts-serp-default-shift-between-2028-and-2030

## Summary

Duane Forrester of CitationIQ predicts that Google’s ranked results page (SERP) will stop being the default first response for most US queries between 2028 and 2030. He clarifies that this is a forecast, not a confirmed fact, and notes that the UK and EU may follow a year or more later due to regulatory differences. Forrester argues that while Google has the technical capability to flip the default now, it lacks the economic incentive because the ranked page still generates higher ad revenue than the newer AI answer layers.

The transition is driven by the growing prevalence of AI Overviews and AI Mode. Similarweb data shows AI Overviews appeared on 43% of US searches by May 2026, up from 15% a year earlier. However, AI Mode itself still accounts for only 0.34% of searches, indicating that while users are trying AI features, they have not yet made them their primary search method. Forrester suggests the default will flip when ad yield in the answer layer reaches parity with the traditional SERP.

Regulatory actions in the UK, EU, and US are also slowing the transition. The UK’s Competition and Markets Authority issued binding requirements in June 2026 allowing publishers to opt out of AI Overviews, while the EU continues a formal investigation into content usage. In the US, ongoing antitrust appeals regarding search distribution may constrain how quickly Google can change its default settings. Forrester advises marketers to monitor specific signals, such as AI Mode’s share of searches and ad revenue reporting, to track this shift.

## Key points

- Forrester forecasts the SERP default shift in the US between 2028 and 2030.
- AI Overviews reached 43% of US searches by May 2026, up from 15%.
- Regulatory actions in the UK, EU, and US are slowing the transition.

## Why it matters

This forecast signals a major shift in search traffic dynamics. Marketers and publishers must prepare for reduced organic click-through rates and adapt strategies to AI-generated answer layers, which are becoming the primary interface for user queries.

## Sources

1. [SERPs Stop Being The Default Between 2028 & 2030 via @sejournal, @DuaneForrester](https://searchenginejournal.com/serps-stop-being-the-default-between-2028-2030/592619) (Search Engine Journal, 2026-10-15)

## Cite

Digest AI, "Duane Forrester forecasts SERP default shift between 2028 and 2030", 15 October 2026, https://digestai.news/story/duane-forrester-forecasts-serp-default-shift-between-2028-and-2030

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