# CESifo study finds no evidence of AI displacement of recent graduates

Digest AI · Research · published 2026-09-25T10:47:00Z · updated 2026-09-25T19:16:16Z

Canonical: https://digestai.news/story/yale-study-finds-ai-shifts-jobs-but-may-increase-overall-employment

## Summary

CESifo researchers Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu released a working paper titled "The Early Impacts of AI on Employment Among Recent College Graduates." They argue there is no evidence of significant, widespread displacement or reduction in hiring of recent college graduates in absolute or relative levels. The study focuses on recent graduates because changes in labor demand may first appear through reductions in hiring. They note that AI can perform relatively standardized tasks in many entry‑level office jobs, which could lead firms to reduce new hiring for simpler roles rather than lay off experienced employees.

The researchers examined microdata from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, looking at year‑over‑year and seasonal trends from 2022 onward. They also referenced a sharp increase in firms replacing employee tasks with AI, higher AI spending per employee, and increased ChatGPT Enterprise token use over the last 12 months. Some industry voices, such as venture capitalist Marc Andreesen and Blackrock CEO Larry Fink, have warned that AI may soon replace jobs of recent graduates, but the CESifo data does not support those concerns.

The paper suggests that, contrary to earlier claims, AI has not yet caused a measurable rise in unemployment among new college graduates, though the authors acknowledge that 2026 graduates might face greater risk as AI capabilities grow.

## Key points

- CESifo study finds no evidence of AI displacement of recent graduates
- Researchers examined U.S. Census Current Population Survey data from 2022 onward
- Industry voices Marc Andreesen and Larry Fink warn of potential AI job loss for new grads

## Why it matters

The findings challenge claims that AI is driving higher unemployment for new college graduates, informing policy and employer hiring strategies.

## Sources

1. [AI was supposed to hit new grads hard. So far, unemployment data says otherwise.](https://arstechnica.com/ai/2026/09/ai-was-supposed-to-hit-new-grads-hard-so-far-unemployment-data-says-otherwise) (Ars Technica AI, 2026-09-25)
2. [How recent grads and college students should be thinking about AI, the CV, and the job market](https://cnbc.com/2026/09/25/ai-jobs-recent-graduates-college-degrees.html) (CNBC Technology, 2026-09-25)
3. [Will AI Eliminate Jobs or Create New Ones? Probably Both.](https://insights.som.yale.edu/insights/will-ai-eliminate-jobs-or-create-new-ones-probably-both) (insights.som.yale.edu, 2026-09-25)

Part of the developing story: [AI Reshapes Job Market Dynamics and Expectations](https://digestai.news/thread/job-seekers-face-pressure-to-feign-ai-enthusiasm-in-interviews) (2 stories)

## Cite

Digest AI, "CESifo study finds no evidence of AI displacement of recent graduates", 25 September 2026, https://digestai.news/story/yale-study-finds-ai-shifts-jobs-but-may-increase-overall-employment

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