ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini give varied extinction risk estimates
The author asked three leading chatbots – OpenAI’s ChatGPT, Anthropic’s Claude, and Google’s Gemini – to estimate the probability that AI could wipe out humanity by the end of the decade. ChatGPT replied with a 5‑10 % range, stressing that the figure applies only to actual human extinction and not to broader crises. Claude declined to give a precise number, calling the risk “real and…
Key points
- ChatGPT estimates a 5‑10 % chance of AI‑driven human extinction within the decade
- Claude calls the risk real but gives no specific probability, noting other severe harms
- Gemini reports a consolidated expert view of 10‑20 % for a catastrophic scenario
The piece notes that the models base their answers on training data and existing research rather than independent judgment, and it frames the discussion amid ongoing debate about whether AI‑related warnings are genuine concerns or PR. A disclaimer reminds readers that the percentages are rough estimates, not factual certainties, and that the underlying data were not independently verified.
The author concludes that even a modest chance of extinction is too high, underscoring the growing perception of AI safety as a real threat today.
AI asked: What are the odds that AI will wipe out humanity this decade?
notebookcheck.net · 25 September 2026
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