Duane Forrester forecasts SERP default shift between 2028 and 2030

The transition is driven by the growing prevalence of AI Overviews and AI Mode. Similarweb data shows AI Overviews appeared on 43% of US searches by May 2026, up from 15% a year earlier. However, AI Mode itself still accounts for only 0.34% of searches, indicating that while users are trying AI features, they have not yet made them their primary search method. Forrester suggests the default will flip when ad yield in the answer layer reaches parity with the traditional SERP.

Regulatory actions in the UK, EU, and US are also slowing the transition. The UK’s Competition and Markets Authority issued binding requirements in June 2026 allowing publishers to opt out of AI Overviews, while the EU continues a formal investigation into content usage. In the US, ongoing antitrust appeals regarding search distribution may constrain how quickly Google can change its default settings. Forrester advises marketers to monitor specific signals, such as AI Mode’s share of searches and ad revenue reporting, to track this shift.