Opinion: Analyst says AI selloff could ease with lower oil, dollar and Anthropic IPO
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) dropped 10% as investors moved money from AI and technology stocks into sectors seen as more reflationary. The analyst attributes the sell‑off to tightening liquidity and broader macro headwinds. To stay disciplined, the author trimmed cash exposure from 18% to 13% and selectively added to high‑conviction AI names while taking profits in software holdings.
Key points
- VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell 10% as investors rotated from AI/tech to reflationary sectors.
- Analyst reduced cash allocation from 18% to 13% and added to select AI stocks while booking software profits.
- Recovery outlook depends on lower oil, weaker dollar, hyperscaler capex, neocloud stability, and an Anthropic IPO.
Recovery, the analyst argues, hinges on several factors: a decline in oil prices, a weaker U.S. dollar, confirmation of hyperscaler capital spending, stabilization of the emerging "neocloud" market, and a successful initial public offering by Anthropic. The plan is to deploy the remaining cash at key SMH support levels or raise cash on any rebound, treating the current volatility as a buying opportunity rather than a breakdown of the thesis.
The author discloses long positions in AMD, Anthropic, CRWD, PLTR and VRT, and notes that the commentary reflects personal opinions without compensation beyond the Seeking Alpha platform.
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What Would Stop The AI Selloff
seekingalpha.com · 18 October 2026
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