CESifo study finds no evidence of AI displacement of recent graduates
CESifo researchers Robert Fairlie and Jane Wu released a working paper titled "The Early Impacts of AI on Employment Among Recent College Graduates." They argue there is no evidence of significant, widespread displacement or reduction in hiring of recent college graduates in absolute or relative levels. The study focuses on recent graduates because changes in labor demand may first appear…
Key points
- CESifo study finds no evidence of AI displacement of recent graduates
- Researchers examined U.S. Census Current Population Survey data from 2022 onward
- Industry voices Marc Andreesen and Larry Fink warn of potential AI job loss for new grads
The researchers examined microdata from the U.S. Census Current Population Survey, looking at year‑over‑year and seasonal trends from 2022 onward. They also referenced a sharp increase in firms replacing employee tasks with AI, higher AI spending per employee, and increased ChatGPT Enterprise token use over the last 12 months. Some industry voices, such as venture capitalist Marc Andreesen and Blackrock CEO Larry Fink, have warned that AI may soon replace jobs of recent graduates, but the CESifo data does not support those concerns.
The paper suggests that, contrary to earlier claims, AI has not yet caused a measurable rise in unemployment among new college graduates, though the authors acknowledge that 2026 graduates might face greater risk as AI capabilities grow.
The story so far
2 episodes →- CESifo study finds no evidence of AI displacement of recent graduatesthis story
AI was supposed to hit new grads hard. So far, unemployment data says otherwise.
Ars Technica AI · 25 September 2026
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This text was published by Ars Technica AI and written by Kyle Orland. It is reproduced here with attribution so you can read it in full; the rights remain with the publisher. Read it at the source ↗
Coverage and discussion
2sources- Will AI Eliminate Jobs or Create New Ones? Probably Both.Press · insights.som.yale.edu ·
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